Power & Politics Hub

Yesterday, 5 September 2024 French president Emmanuel Macron officially appointed Michel Barnier to be France’s new Prime Minister. Barnier  is an experienced politician having served in the past as Agriculture Minister, Foreign Minister, France’s EU Commissioner and chief Brexit negotiator on the EU’s behalf. A representative of the right flank of France’s centre-right party Les Républicains, Mr Barnier’s choice came as somewhat of a shock, considering the legislative elections in the summer saw the left-wing Front Populaire alliance come in first, with President Macron and his party having shown willingness to work with them over far-right Rassamblement National. Instead, France will now have a centre-right government, which may rely on support of the far-right.

The first factor which will determine whether Barnier’s appointment can be of any help to centrist forces and President Macron is what RN’s behaviour towards the government will be. If RN provide enough support to Mr Barnier he may succeed in pushing his priorities among which are security and immigration control. In the author’s opinion, without indulging the most extremist aspects of RN policy proposals, it is necessary to address some concerns in the sphere which voters might have, to prevent the far-right from growing. If Mr Barnier’s proposals are deemed as sensible by the French public but the RN does not support them, this may put them in a complicated position, having to explain their actions. The Barnier cabinet is the last chance of French centre and centre-right parties, including President Macron’s Renaissance to prove that they are taking voter concerns seriously, before the 2027 presidential election, the opinion polling for which clearly has Marine Le Pen in the lead. Of course, however, Mr Barnier being to the right of President Macron economically may fail to address concerns voters may have about some economic policies.

A second factor, in the author’s opinion, would be the behaviour of the left-wing bloc. While they feel somewhat betrayed, with Jean-Luc Melenchnon even calling Michel Barnier’s appointment “stealing” the election from the French people. Other Front Populaire parties, such as the Socialists, have been more moderate in their rhetoric however they still ruled out any support for the new government. Ultimately, it would depend on what the Front Populaire bloc who will be in opposition choose to mainly challenge the government on. This will either make the public see them as a viable alternative for 2027, or make them seem out of touch and make the left and far-left less able to challenge.

A third and final consideration, nonetheless, has to be that President Macron and now Prime Minister Barnier are not ideological twins. While on foreign policy both are deemed ‘convinced Europeans’ who want France to be stronger on the global stage, Mr Barnier is to the right domestically. Furthermore, even in foreign policy there may be crashes over how they both engage on France’s foreign relations especially with fellow EU states, as both have it as their forte. While Barnier has experience with a typically presidential role such as foreign affairs, Macron also has experience with a prime ministerial/ government role such as budgets. If both try to interfere in each other’s roles this may create room for conflict, defeating the purpose of Macron choosing Bernier as a unity candidate.