Power & Politics Hub

From 6 to 9 June 2024, EU citizens elected a new EU Parliament. There were some shocks, with extremist, far-right parties rising. Most notably, two new far-right groups were formed in the EU Parliament- the Patriots for Europe (PfE) and the even more extremist Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN) group, with the PfE group becoming the third largest. The parties of the vdL majority, nonetheless, maintained their majority, despite the centrist Renew Europe (RE) group becoming fifth largest. Soon after the EU elections, the centre-right, centre-left and centre started working to reach a deal on forming a new majority to prevent the political fringe from gaining more influence, and soon enough Ursula von der Leyen (Germany-EPP) was elected to lead the Commission for a second term. The opinion piece will focus on what five of the main priorities of the new EU Commission should be.

Priority 1- Stronger security and defence policy

Since February 2022, there has been war at the geographical heart of Europe. Russia launched an illegal, unprovoked, expansionist war in Ukraine. Aside from the war being marked with many war crimes and atrocities, it is also imperative Europe stops demonstrating weakness, as the war is at its doorstep. As presidential elections are coming in the USA this November,with there being a possibility of a Donald Trump victory,  the EU may also soon enough not have a reliable partner across the Atlantic. Even in the case of a Kamala Harris triumph, Europe still needs a strong degree of strategic autonomy. 

For these reasons, I believe the next EU Commission should prioritise Europe becoming more self-sufficient in defence and security than ever before. The next EU Commission will need a Commissioner specialising in that, as well as industrial policy, to ensure a developed, functioning and strong defence industry on EU level, including EU-wide procurement. I believe the current Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton of France may be a good choice for such a role, due to him having demonstrated willingness for a strong, strategically autonomous Europe, as well as his political skills. Europe undoubtedly has much bigger economic potential than rogue adversaries such as Russia, but without a more coherent and stronger security and defence policies, disasters such as North Korea producing more shells than Europe are bound to happen.

Priority 2- Facilitating energy transition, continuing commitment to the Green Deal, reducing energy dependencies

As mentioned above, the last European elections saw a rise in the popularity of populists. Some of these populists have been expressing vehement opposition to the European Green Deal. Nonetheless, it would be wrong to pander to them and harm the Green Deal. The EGD is already transforming European economies, and has led to worthy investments. What should be done, however, is better communication and educating people, especially in some member states on why it is a necessary move. The next EU Commission should encourage states such as my home country, Bulgaria, to start programs such as training current workers in fields like coal mining to undertake training for new careers in the transition to cleaner energy, instead of letting member states descend into populism. EU funding towards such campaigns is also advisable.

The EU should also form energy alliances, strive for an energy union, and better interconnectivity between members. Interconnectivity would be an efficient form of energy storage as well, allowing clean wind energy from Norway (an EU close ally with which an energy union should be formed) to go to member states who fail to generate such amounts of wind energy, just like the same can be done with clean solar energy from the south of the continent. The EU should also encourage states to invest in grids and other infrastructure, deemed less attractive for private investment. 

These also relate to the EU becoming less dependent on dictatorships as opposed to the dependency on Russian oil and natural gas being replaced by dependency on other dictatorships. This may also be relevant to clean energy, and many of the rare earth materials being from China. The EU needs to derisk and continue the work on developing alternative supply routes for these materials.

Priority 3- Ambitious trade policy

The EU Commission should focus on making new free trade agreements (FTAs) with as many states as possible. This is important not only for the fact it will lead to economic prosperity, but also the fact it will allow European standards and priorities to be exported likewise. This will also allow the EU to export its influence, by providing an alternative market to smaller countries who are currently dependent on dictatorial regimes such as China.

I agree with the DGAP’s assessment that while the EU should focus on WTO reform, as it is desirable for dispute settlement and regulating global trade, the EU should also engage with willing states and actors in plurilateral agreements. It will be helpful for the EU to present itself as an active and co-operative actor, and it will also lead to the EU having a bigger say in creating new rules.

Priority 4- Enlargement

The EU Commission should be aware that currently the world witnesses a battle for its soul between democracy, economic openness, civil engagement and autocracy, isolationism and nativism. Many European countries are also witnessing democratic backsliding. For these reasons the EU should not allow its adversaries to take over. The second Von der Leyen Commission needs to be ambitious, provide timelines and be specific about what reforms they expect from countries willing to join the EU in regions such as the Western Balkans, and also Moldova and Ukraine. If these countries are on track to join the EU, are committing to reforms and openness, it is likely that the states experiencing backsliding in democratic values such as Georgia under the current government, or Serbia under Vucic, or maybe their citizens see the virtues of being aligned with the EU and demand change in their own countries. While the processes for many of these countries joining the EU had already began, it is crucial they are hastened.

Priority 5- Enforcing rule of law and cohesion within the Bloc

While the previous point spoke about dealing with democratic backsliding in Europe, but outside the EU, this point focuses on the same phenomenon but within the Union. The most notable example is perhaps Viktor Orban’s Hungary. It is the author’s conviction that the situation in Hungary has deteriorated so much in terms of rule of law, and in terms of the country sharing the bloc’s values increasingly less to the point where they are willing to block common EU decisions such as on supporting Ukraine, due to weakness of the EU. For years the EU has not been imposing sanctions on the Hungarian government or Hungary. Instead they have been trying to negotiate with and “buy” Viktor Orban’s support. The EU has backed out almost every instance there has been talk of punishing Hungary, and quite often Orban has been able to get what he intended to. The EU executive authorities should shy away much less about taking punitive action against members. This would persuade other EU governments with such tendencies, e.g Robert Fico’s government in Slovakia to be way more cautious.